March 2026

The collapse of the military government led by Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 triggered state breakdown and civil war across Somalia. In the north, the Somali National Movement (SNM) consolidated control over most of the former British Somaliland Protectorate. Following a series of reconciliation conferences involving SNM leaders, clan elders, and community representatives, the SNM Central Committee declared on 18 May 1991 the restoration of the Republic of Somaliland within the borders of the former British Protectorate (Interpeace, 2008). Over the following decades, Somaliland reduced inter-clan conflict, established hybrid governance combining traditional elders (Guurti) with modern institutions, and held multiple elections. A 2001 referendum reportedly showed overwhelming support for independence. Despite maintaining relative internal stability and functioning institutions, Somaliland has not received international recognition and continues to be regarded under international law as part of the Federal Republic of Somalia (Michael Walls and Steve Kibble, 2011). Somaliland grounds its territorial claim in the borders of the former British Protectorate, which briefly gained independence on 26 June 1960 before uniting with Italian-administered Somalia on 1 July 1960. However, its claim over the Sool and Sanaag regions has long been contested. In August 2023, SSC-Khatumo forces took control of Las Anod and surrounding areas, and in October 2023 the Federal Government recognised SSC-Khatumo as an interim administration (Horseed Media, 2023). In July 2025, a Grand Constitutional Conference declared the formation of the Northeastern State as Somalia’s sixth Federal Member State, with federal recognition granted on 31 July 2025 (CHS Doha, 2025). These developments have altered the territorial realities underlying Somaliland’s independence claim. In recent years, Somaliland has intensified its diplomatic and lobbying efforts to secure international recognition. In early 2025, international media reported that the United States and Israel had approached several East African actors, including Somaliland, as possible destinations for resettling Palestinians displaced from Gaza under proposals linked to the U.S. President Donald Trump’s post-war plan (AP, 2025). Reports also suggest that the United Arab Emirates, which normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, may have played a facilitating role. The UAE maintains strong economic ties with Somaliland, including a $442 million investment in the development and operation of the Berbera port (Bloomberg, 2026). Somaliland’s location along the Gulf of Aden, near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the sea route connecting the Red Sea to the Suez Canal, significantly enhances its geopolitical importance. This corridor carries a substantial share of global container traffic and energy shipments (World Bank, 2025). Its strategic position has attracted sustained interest from regional and international actors. In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding under which Ethiopia would gain access to the Red Sea through Berbera in exchange for potentially recognising Somaliland as an independent state (BBC, 2024). Although the agreement was not formalised, it intensified regional tensions. On 26 December 2025, Israel formally recognised Somaliland as an independent state under the framework of the Abraham Accords (BBC, 2025). Somalia’s Federal Government strongly condemned the decision, describing it as a violation of its sovereignty and warning against any foreign military presence on its territory (AlJazeera, 2025). This recognition marked the first time a UN member state formally acknowledged Somaliland’s independence, transforming a long-standing political dispute into a major international diplomatic and security concern. Against this backdrop, this policy brief analyses the political, legal, security, and diplomatic implications of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland for Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. This study examines how this decision may affect Somalia’s sovereignty, regional stability, and international relations. This brief aims to inform policymakers, regional actors, and international partners about the associated risks and support evidence-based responses that uphold Somalia’s unity, constitutional order, and long-term stability.