November 2023

The archetypical stable autonomous Federal Member State of Puntland is undergoing the most turbulent and uncertain time in its political history.  Since its foundation in 1998, the State has grappled with near political crisis at the end of every presidential tenure. The political wrangling over the term limits and electoral models between the incumbent president maneuvering to remain in power and the opposition candidates vying for the highest office of the State brings the State closer to crisis.  Although the State has never transitioned to democratic system of elections, it succeeded in peaceful selection of members of the House of the People, holding presidential elections and transfer of power every five years on 8th of January in the last 15 years.  This year election year 2023 has been different in many ways. The State has successfully conducted one person one vote local elections in 33 districts for the first time since it was founded.  But the year has also seen the worst intra-state election-related conflict, political disagreement and polarization. The current electoral conflict stems from unresolved issues that originated from the district council elections held on May 25, 2023, in 30 districts. Notably, three districts in Nugal, including the capital Garowe, experienced opposition boycotts leading to the non-participation of approximately 80,000 voters. This conflicts, compounded by amendments to constitutional articles, escalated into violent clashes in Garowe in June 2023. The resulting tensions have now permeated the ongoing parliamentary and presidential elections, given that the current president’s term is scheduled to conclude on January 8, 2024. The incumbent president and opposition groups find themselves in a deadlock, unable to reach a consensus on the electoral processes. The political landscape is marked by a clash of interests as both sides navigate the complexities of this electoral challenge. President Said Abdullahi Deni is attempting to achieve what no previous Puntland leader has accomplished: securing a second term in office. However, he encounters formidable opposition from a diverse group of politicians who despite their differences, share a common objective – preventing his re-election. Opposition forum believe that the president’s potential re-election hinges on a “one-sided election,” marked by manipulation, and a lack of fairness and transparency, that will result in a predetermined outcome that fails to genuinely represent the will of Puntland’s voters. The opposition forum cited the recently established Puntland Election Commission (PEC) as an example on how the president intends to undermine his term limit in office and manipulate the outcome of the election. The president and his allies argue that the government has a mandate to complete the transition to democracy and that the State is ready for one person one vote elections. The cite the recent local elections as a proof of the concept and  vow that there will be no return to the old, discredited, traditional elder’s selection of 66 member House of the People  and their subsequent election of the president. On November 2, 2023, 28 Puntland traditional leaders gathered in Garowe and issued a statement insisting that the scheduled January 8, 2024, election should not be postponed (Puntland Mirror, 2023). They proposed a return to the traditional selection model of the 66 parliamentary members due to time limitations. Additionally, they urged the parliament to promptly release the election annex and appoint a committee for dispute resolution. This declaration coincided with the Council of Ministers’ prior approval of the new Puntland election schedule, as announced by the Puntland Election Commission on November 24, 2023. Despite the president’s rejection of the elders’ decision, asserting that the matter of elections falls within the purview of the Puntland Election Commission and not the elders’ mandate, the opposition welcomed the traditional leaders’ stance. They perceived it as the only viable solution to the current impasse, highlighting the depth of the political deadlock and the urgency for alternative approaches to move forward. Tensions between the opposition and the president escalated when the opposition released a parallel electoral timetable on November 14, 2023, to implement the traditional elders’ decision for the upcoming elections in Puntland (Garowe Online, 2023). This timetable differs from the one issued by the Puntland Electoral Commission (PEC). According to the opposition’s timetable, Puntland will hold presidential elections on January 8. However, PEC’s timetable shows the elections taking place on February 25, 2024. In an effort to ease rising tensions, President Said Abdullahi Deni, on November 17, 2023, addressed a gathering during his visit to Ano-Yaskax village in the Nugal region (Garowe Online, 2023). He expressed a willingness to enter into discussions with opposition politicians to address the ongoing election dispute. However, he made it clear that there is a condition for these talks: the electoral process must strictly adhere to the principle of “one person, one vote,” a stance endorsed by his government. While the opposition has welcomed the president’s call for dialogue, they have stipulated a prerequisite of involving an impartial third party. They emphasized that the electoral process should be collectively agreed upon by all parties involved and must proceed as scheduled on January 8, 2024. Alarmed by the continued mobilization of forces by the government and some opposition groups, International Partners and Puntland Non-State Actors (PUNSAA) have been calling for de-escalation of tension and engaging in negotiations to reach a consensus-based electoral model. On November 21, 2023, International partners called on all parties to remain calm and exercise restraint, resolving their disputes through peaceful means, after expressing concerns about the risk of higher tensions, including the ongoing mobilization of forces (UNSOM, 2023). PUNSAA issued a statement urging all parties to negotiate and reach a consensus-based electoral model. In this context, this report provides a thorough analysis of the positions and perspectives of key political stakeholders, including the ruling party and its coalition parties, opposition forum, traditional elders, and civil society organizations. Amidst a heated election context, divergent views and approaches are explored, emphasizing the need for inclusive dialogue to address the impasse and ensure a peaceful and credible electoral process.